The new New Orleans

Katrina: Mixing Up Louisiana Politics

Here are the latest insider updates I have received about who is running for what. Remember, this is only educated speculation:

Al Ater (D) was appointed Secretary of State after Fox McKeithen (R) died but will not run for re-election because he feels as though the position should be appointed. Also, he is not going for Chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party as some had guessed early on.

However, there are a slew of potential candidates to replace Shaw CEO & Chairman Jim Bernhard as Chair of the Democratic Party. Third Vice Chair Larry Ferdinand, an African-American from Shreveport, has made it clear to some members that he's interested. Many grassroots activists would like for former LA AFL-CIO President Sibal Holt, a black woman and close ally of Blanco, to run for Chair. She would be the first female chair in Louisiana. She also serves on Blanco's Louisiana Recovery Authority and sits on the Louisiana Dem. Party Executive Committee.

Some people are supposedly encouraging people like former Attorney General Richard Ieyoub to run BUT that's just speculation that no one can really confirm. If no one credible decides to run, Chris Whittington, the legal counsel for the Party and a close ally of Insurance Commissioner Robert Wooley, will probably throw his name into the hat.

Mitch Landrieu may still run for mayor, but sources close to Mayor Ray Nagin say he is still planning on running for re-election (which is news to many).

“Community activist and former state Rep. Leo Watermeier and radio announcer James Arey, both considered longshots, announced their candidacy before the storm but the devastation wrought by the storm and the reshuffling of the New Orleans' demographic profile from a predominantly African-American city to a seemingly majority white one has sparked speculation that Nagin, who is black, may attract formidable white opposition."

Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, the son of former Mayor Moon Landrieu and brother of U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu is still considering the move but that would mean he would not run for Governor in 2007.

It would also leave a vacancy for Lt. Governor which could become a very interesting race. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Orleans School Board member Jimmy Fahrenholtz, a white Democrat recently announced that he plans on running but the school boards reputation is not in his favor. Former City Councilwoman Peggy Wilson, a Republican, has also said that she will consider running and, according to Louisiana Politics, has hired Roy Fletcher, an advertiser famous for his attack ads. The only potential black mayoral contender to surface is Council President Oliver Thomas. He is an ally of Nagin and will run only if it looks like Nagin will lose.

Marjorie McKeithen (D) will probably run for Secretary of State, the post that her father held for so many years (also reported on http://www.lapolitics.com/). She almost beat Richard Baker in 1998 (She is last Democrat to come close in the 6th Congressional District). The Republican will likely be state Sen. Mike Michot from Lafayette. This could be interesting if he runs strong in Acadiana and she runs strong in Baton Rouge and her family's home base of North LA. Sen. Sharon Weston Broome, a black woman and former Speaker Pro-Tempore of the House, is also considering running but fundraising would be a concern.

If McKeithen doesn't run for Sec. of State, then powerful state Sen. Francis Heitmeier would probably run. He has over $600,000 in his campaign account and is a great fundraiser. He has been the longtime chair of the LA Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Sen. Jay Dardenne was originally mentioned but he says that he will probably run for Governor (also cited on http://www.lapolitics.com/). This would throw a major curveball in the Republican side of things because he has a lot of money and is a true fiscal conservative, not the Christian Right. That would leave Jindal and Vitter scrambling. My souce said, “Pre-Katrina, it looked like Vitter would be the man, after all, he wants to run for President one day. But in the weeks and months after the storm, Rep. Bobby Jindal got all the local and national media attention. Remember, it was the New Orleans black vote that kept him from beating Blanco in 2003, a demographic that barely exists post-Katrina.” On the Democratic side, if Blanco or Landrieu don't run, look for state Treasurer John Kennedy, former Atty. Gen. Richard Ieyoub, or another big time name to step up.

Also, Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-3rd CD) will probably draw opposition from state Sen. Craig Romero (R). Romero finished 3rd in that same race in 2004 behind Lil' Billy Tauzin. Romero is able to raise lots of money, but Melancon has too much cash on hand and high poll numbers which could force Romero to run for a statewide position like Commissioner of Agriculture against iconic Bob Odom. State Sen. James David Cain has also expressed interest in that race. No telling though.

In the 7th Congressional District, former Congressman and 2004 Senate candidate Chris John (D), announced he will not run against Rep. Charles Boustany (R) in 2006. He did not rule out running in the future though.

No challengers have surfaced for Insurance Commissioner Robert Wooley or Lt. Governor at this time.

No challengers have been announced for 1st, 4th, 5th, or 6th congressional races.

The 2nd Congressional District could be determined by who loses the New Orleans. Mayor's race. Congressman William Jefferson says he's still running for re-election, but he has been M.I.A. post-Katrina and was in the middle of an FBI investigation before the storm hit. If he runs though, "Dollar Bill" as many refer to him, would have a good chance at getting reelected.

posted by Jessie Tucker @ 12/10/2005