Blanco follow-up
What will happen with Blanco going?As I announced in my last post, Governor Blanco will not be running for re-election in 2007. But what does that mean now?
Obviously, Blanco and/or the Louisiana Democratic Party are not going to announce her decision for quite some time. I spoke with the editor of my school’s paper (he read my blog post) and he had heard the same thing but no one will go on record confirming that she isn’t running. Until that happens, the reports are just speculative and no newspaper will give it a large amount of attention (There are obviously more important issues to focus on anyway). However, it could still create problems early.
For example, if everyone knows Blanco is out and that she is going to take the heat for part of the problems in New Orleans, what if Republicans and Democrats both separate from her to distance themselves from the ‘source’ of the problem? This could leave her as a “lame duck” Governor and make her administration extremely ineffective in its recovery efforts.
I think this strategy is a strong possibility for Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu who is rumored to be running for Governor in 2007 (see last post). He will not want to be seen as Blanco’s right-hand man when he will have to run on a platform promising better performance than her administration demonstrated during Katrina.
I would say it’s a possibility that the Democratic Party may try to lay all of the blame on the Bush administration and emphasize a message such as, “We did everything we could. We asked for assistance. It is the Federal Government’s fault.” but this will NEVER happen.
First, it is not true. As Blanco already openly admitted, there were failures at all levels of government. They may have tried hard but it was not enough. Bush, too, already accepted part of the blame.
Second, if Blanco is not running for re-election, that is a second, strong acceptance of fault. It is sort of like hanging a sign on the Democratic Party leader saying, “I cracked and now I’m stepping down.”
What about close to the election?
Expect especially strong criticisms of Blanco’s administration from the Republican Party – obviously. But I would also expect them from the Democrats. With guilt admitted, Democratic candidates have to differentiate themselves from the “failures” if they want to be winners.
Overall, the demographics of New Orleans have been greatly altered, as I mentioned in my last post. This could lead to a stronger Republican constituency in the city but what about the rest of the state?
In a state that is primarily Republican (Bush won with 57% of the vote in 2004), it will be interesting to see how many switch to the other side and vote Democrat post-Katrina. After all, Bush’s approval rating continues to be low as he is constantly criticized for the war in Iraq and his ineffectiveness in the heat of this disaster. Maybe Republican candidates will use the same strategy that I suggested for Democratic Gubernatorial candidates in Louisiana – separate yourself from the “failure” (Bush and Blanco).
Wouldn’t that be something if the voters in New Orleans turned Republican and the voters in the rest of the state went Democrat? At this point, with the governmental leadership we have at the state and federal level, nothing would surprise me.
posted by Jessie Tucker @ 12/04/2005
7 Comments:
Key is whether next Governor's race is a chance to express a "protest" vote. If Blanco was running it would be, but if she (and of course Bush) are not on ballot, who will be the target of voter anger? Will voters still be angry? Dems could try "McCain" strategy. McCain is best presidential choice right now for Reps because most Bush negatives transfer to him. Local Dems could find somebody of a similar type--but do they exist in LA?
I think the Republican battle for the Governor's race will be just as important as to whether Blanco runs again. It could turn out like the '04 Senate race where Chris John and John Kennedy, two quality candidates from the same party, beat eachother up so much that the lone Republican was able to survive. Look for Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu to lead the Democrats with Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell joining the field. But for Republicans, it could be state Sen. Jay Dardenne, Sen. David Vitter, Rep. Bobby Jindal, and a slew of others. Should be interesting. Great analysis though.
policybyblog,
First off, I think it is safe to say that voters will still be angry in the next election (and probably for many to come). That is an interesting concept about the protest vote. However, I honestly do not think a candidate who could be blamed for the failures will run. This leaves us with what I suggested in my post.
The candidates will separate themselves from the "failures" or the official being protested.
I'll inquire to my source about any potential candidates that fit your bill of being the "McCain" for Democrats in Louisiana.
Jess
anonymous,
Look for my next post to be about just what you mention. Jay Dardenne could really mix things up on the Republican side!
This rumor mill is awesome. This is what what makes blogs so great (this, and the fact that you won't see bloggers wasting their own or their reader's time on irrelevant news about pretty blonde girls missing in paradise (no offense to the family)).
I hope you keep blogging even after you're 'done'.
I am from New Orleans and I'd have to say from first hand knowledge that your theory could be very true about the switch voting. So many families who were staunch Bush supporters have felt disgusted with him during the catastrophy. As many of the Republicans (especially in the south) are his last remaining supporters of the war, he has basically lost this support with his apparent lack of concern towards the Katrina mess. Many Americans who were okay with the war in Iraq before now see it from an economic standpoint and cannot understand how we spend billions a week on an unnecessary war, when people in America are living without many of life's necessities. No matter what, I think the voting turnout will be at an all time high as many people will go out and vote Against some of the candidates. I think it will be very interesting to watch; I can't wait to see what happens. Great blog, I am always interested to read news about whats going on in the nola. Hope that information worked out for you, can't wait to see what she says!
Thanks Meg and I totally agree. If these recent events don't get out the vote, then nothing can.
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